Monday, September 30, 2013

Weekend Edition – What Is Happiness?

Throughout my early childhood and teenage years, my dad would share this quote with me time and time again: “Happiness is wanting what you have, not having what you want.” For most of my adolescence I tended to roll my eyes every time he said those words, thinking it was just one of an endless number of aphorisms fathers are known to utter. However, as I got older I started to cherish this quote, believing that it provides a sound basis for anyone and everyone’s lives, both on a financial and emotional level.

Too often we–and when I say we I’m making a sweeping generalization about all consumers–are searching for the newest product or service that we want to buy. We might not need these various consumer goods, but our desire to purchase them is strong for a variety of reasons. But do these purchases make us truly happy? It’s hard to say, but for the most part I’d lean toward saying no.

You Can’t Buy Happiness

Notably and recently, the demand for Apple’s (AAPL) new iPhone 5s had people waiting in lines for hours to purchase a smartphone that they most likely did not need. However, the desire to be socially accepted with the newest product from Apple caused people to wait for hours and fork over hundreds of dollars. Undoubtedly, these individuals could have used their time and money more productively, but the desire to have what they wanted outweighed most rational feelings. In the end, did this equate to happiness? Maybe for a short while, but over the long-term it was probably just another excessive purchase.

As a society, not enough people are content with what they already have, so we go out and spend money on various, and usually unnecessary, consumer goods or expensive vices. Moreover, these things that we tend to desire do not add much long-term value to our lives, whether it is on an emotional, psychological, physiological, or financial level. Sure, you’re happy for a moment following the purchase of whatever product you just bought, but how does it provide you value for years to come?

Yes, I know consumer demand is the crux of our whole economy. Economic growth is essential dependent on people continuously buying products and services – some that they need and many that they want. But that’s beside the point. I’m looking at consumer want on an individual level, in which we can do some introspection to realize that we should be content with the goods we already have. Sure, there are times when we actually need certain goods, at which point we should consume the necessary products and services. However, for all those other desired purchases, maybe it is time to set aside that money you would be potentially spending and invest it, which would provide you with value for years to come. It might not be as sexy as buying a new car, a watch, or a new pair of shoes, but it will lead to the greatest long-term value, and possibly happiness.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Bitter Facts of the "Jobs Recovery" My Readers Need to Know About

The Federal Reserve and Obama administration have pushed trillions of dollars of stimulus into the economic veins of America. For that, the return on the investment has been dismal.

Just take a look at the retail sales reading for August; consumer spending clearly isn’t doing what the government wants it to do and that is to spend and drive gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Retail sales increased a mere and disappointing 0.2% in August, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The reading was well below the Briefing.com estimate of 0.5% and the upwardly revised 0.4% in July. Even on an ex-auto basis, retail sales spurted along at a mere 0.1%.

I’m hearing some economists saying retail sales have been positive for five straight quarters. I say, so what? The reality is that there’s a weak spot in consumer spending. If you want to see strong consumer spending, just look at China, where retail sales surged an impressive 13.4% in August.

The problem I continue to see in the U.S. is that the jobs market continues to be weak, and this has an impact on consumer spending. When you don’t have work or are underemployed, which millions of Americans are, it’s only expected that you would be hesitant to spend when shopping, especially on non-essential goods and services. The durable goods orders in July plummeted 7.3% after a 3.9% increase in June. This means consumers are not spending on stuff they don’t need.

In my view, this is not the sign of a healthy economy. The rich—the top five percent—may be faring well, but the rest of America, including the middle class and lower-income earners are struggling to make ends meet, so they’re holding back on consumer spending.

In the U.S., we have about 11.27 million people actively looking for work, but only about 3.689 million jobs were available in July, according to JOLTS. However, if you add in the workers who have given up looking for work, the number of unemployed swells to about 21.25 million. (Source: USDebtClock.org, last accessed September 13, 2013.) This means that the majority of America will be less inclined to spend, meaning the poor levels of consumer spending will hinder economic growth.

In August, a mere 169,000 jobs were created. Sorry to say, but that’s just not good enough, especially when we still have about 48 million Americans depending on handouts and food stamps.

With such abysmal numbers and an absence of strong consumer spending, there’s one question we all should be asking the mainstream media: where’s the healthy economy?

This article Bitter Facts of the “Jobs Recovery” My Readers Need to Know About was originally published at Investment Contrarians

The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Top 10 Casino Companies For 2014

When one thinks of gambling "sin stocks," one ordinarily thinks about large casino stocks. But casino resorts are what they are in part due to the availability of gambling related machines and hardware. I am going to look at a few of the leading companies in that industry today.

WMS Industries - Independence at an end

We are likely approaching the last time I will be reporting on WMS Industries (WMS), the former Williams Electronics. It has agreed to be acquired by Scientific Games (SGMS) for $26 per share, plus the assumption of WMS' modest debt. The deal is scheduled to close by the end of this year. On its own, WMS is having a dismal fiscal year, which ends June 30. For this year, the company, no doubt with distracted management, earnings are likely to end at about $0.90 per share, compared with fiscal 2012's $1.31 per share. Helping drive earnings lower are additional measures the company is taking to drive up revenues, which remain well below last decade's peak. WMS' stock has flat lined the past few months at within three percent of the $26 price. There is virtually no upside, though there is downside if the deal collapses. I see no reason to get invested in WMS.

Top 10 Casino Companies For 2014: (XTRN)

Las Vegas Railway Express Inc. focuses to re-establish a conventional passenger train service between the Las Vegas and Los Angeles metropolitan areas. It plans to establish a ?Vegas-style? passenger train service. The company is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Top 10 Casino Companies For 2014: Wynn Resorts Limited(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, ownership, and operation of destination casino resorts. The company owns and operates Wynn Las Vegas casino resort in Las Vegas, which includes approximately 22 food and beverage outlets comprising 5 dining restaurants; 2 nightclubs; 1 spa and salon; 1 Ferrari and Maserati automobile dealership; wedding chapels; an 18-hole golf course; meeting space; and foot retail promenade featuring boutiques. Wynn Las Vegas casino resort also features approximately 147 table games, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, 1 poker room, 1,842 slot machines, and 1 race and sports book. It also owns and operates an Encore at Wynn Las Vegas resort, a destination casino resort located adjacent to Wynn Las Vegas that features a 2,034 all-suite hotel, as well as a casino with 95 table games, 1 sky casino, 1 baccarat salon, private VIP gaming rooms, and 778 slot machines. In addition, the company operates Wyn n Macau casino resort located in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People?s Republic of China. Wynn Macau casino resort features approximately 595 hotel rooms and suites, 410 table games, 935 slot machines, 1 poker room, 1 sky casino, 6 restaurants, 1 spa and salon, lounges, meeting facilities, and retail space featuring boutiques. Further, it operates Encore at Wynn Macau resort located adjacent to Wynn Macau. Encore at Wynn Macau resort features approximately 410 luxury suites and 4 villas, as well as casino gaming space, including a sky casino consisting of 60 table games and 80 slot machines, 2 restaurants, 1 luxury spa, and retail space. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Holly LaFon]

    His largest new buys in the first quarter are: Penn Virginia Group Holdings LP (PVG), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN), Methanex Corp. (MEOH), Solutia Inc. (SOA) and Georgia Gulf (GGC). Of his top eight stocks, five are from the chemicals industry.

  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One gambling player that's starting to move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is Wynn Resorts (WYNN), a developer, owner and operator of destination casino resorts. This stock has been trending hot so far in 2013, with shares up 24%.

    If you look at the chart for Wynn Resorts, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months, with shares moving higher from its low of $120.96 to its intraday high of $140.82 a share. During that uptrend, shares of WYNN have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. Shares of WYNN have been consolidating for the last few weeks, moving between just below $137 to just above $140 a share. A high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern could trigger a big breakout trade for shares of WYNN.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in WYNN if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $140.82 to its 52-week high at $144.99 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.30 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then WYNN will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $160 to $165 a share, or even $170 a share.

    Traders can look to buy WYNN off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 50-day moving average of $132.51 a share. One can also buy WYNN off strength once it takes out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    U.S.-based casino operators Las Vegas Sands Inc. (NYSE: LVS), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) already operate resorts and casinos in Macau and these companies would be much smaller without them.

  • [By John Udovich]

    Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (NASDAQ: MPEL) is a pure play Macau casino gaming stock that�� delivered an exceptional performance for investors verses the Las Vegas Sands Corp (NYSE: LVS), Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) and Market Vectors Gaming ETF (NYSEARCA: BJK), which also have exposure to the Macau casino gaming market, for a good reason. In 2006, Macau officially overtook the Las Vegas Strip as the largest casino gaming market in the world thanks in part to its location near Hong Kong�that�� also�within easy reach of the two billion people in China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. With that said, there could be some unfavorable trends or concerns that might make both Macau and Melco Crown Entertainment less of a sure bet.

Best Medical Stocks To Watch For 2014: MGM Resorts International(MGM)

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, primarily owns and operates casino resorts in the United States. The company?s resorts offer gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities. It also owns and operates golf courses and a golf club. As of December 31, 2010, the company owned and operated 15 properties located in Nevada, Mississippi, and Michigan; and has 50% investments in 4 other casino resorts in Nevada, Illinois, and Macau. In addition, MGM Resorts International has an agreement with the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation, which owns and operates a casino resort in Connecticut, to carry the ?MGM Grand? brand name. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lisa Abramowicz]

    ��t�� allowed companies such as ourselves to continue to access the capital markets,��Dan D��rrigo, the executive vice president and chief financial officer of Las Vegas-based casino company MGM Resorts International (MGM), said in a Sept. 17 telephone interview. During the crisis, ��e still had access but at much more costly rates to our company,��he said.

  • [By Monica Wolfe]

    MGM Resorts International (MGM)

    Paulson�� fifth largest position is in MGM Resorts International. The guru holds on to 34 million shares of the company�� stock, representing 3.5% of his total portfolio and 6.94% of the company�� shares outstanding.

Top 10 Casino Companies For 2014: Boyd Gaming Corporation(BYD)

Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States. As of December 31, 2011, the company owned and operated 1,042,787 square feet of casino space, containing approximately 25,973 slot machines, 655 table games, and 11,418 hotel rooms. It also owned and operated 16 gaming entertainment properties located in Nevada, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Indiana, and New Jersey. In addition, the company owns and operates a pari-mutuel jai-alai facility located in Dania Beach, Florida, as well as a travel agency in Hawaii. Further, it holds a 50% controlling interest in the limited liability company that operates Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Boyd Gaming Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One gaming player that's rapidly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade is Boyd Gaming (BYD), which owns and operates gaming entertainment facilities located in Nevada, Mississippi, Illinois, Louisiana and Indiana. This stock has been blazing a trail to the upside so far in 2013, with shares up sharply by 115%.

    If you look at the chart for Boyd Gaming, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending strong over the last month and change, with shares moving sharply higher from its low of $11.27 to its intraday high of $14.38 a share. During that move, shares of BYD have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of BYD into breakout territory above resistance at $13.79 a share, and it's quickly pushing the stock within range of another big breakout trade.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BYD if it manages to break out above its 52-week high at $14.50 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 2.34 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then BYD will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $18 to $20 a share.

    Traders can look to buy BYD off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some near-term support at $13 a share. One can also buy BYD off strength once it takes out $14.50 a share with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Top 10 Casino Companies For 2014: Pinnacle Entertainment Inc.(PNK)

Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. owns, develops, and operates casinos, and related hospitality and entertainment facilities in the United States. It operates casinos, such as L'Auberge du Lac in Lake Charles, Louisiana; River City Casino and Lumiere Place in St. Louis, Missouri; Boomtown New Orleans in New Orleans, Louisiana; Belterra Casino Resort in Vevay, Indiana; Boomtown Bossier City in Bossier City, Louisiana; and Boomtown Reno in Reno, Nevada. The company also operates River Downs racetrack in southeast Cincinnati, Ohio. As of May 26, 2011, it operated seven casinos and one racetrack. The company was formerly known as Hollywood Park, Inc. and changed its name to Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. in February 2000. Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) has gained 56% this year; Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has climbed 38%. And Deutsche Bank has nice things to say about both today.

    Bloomberg

    First Pinnacle. Deutsche Bank’s Carlo Santarelli ponders the stock’s big move and comes away still seeing value in its shares. He writes:

    When we upgraded PNK in April, our thesis centered on the FCF strength of the combined entities [Pinnacle completed its acquisition of Ameristar Casinos on Aug. 14], a handful of favorable catalysts, easing regional gaming comps, & an inexpensive relative valuation. Given the shares’ sizeable move since then, we believe it is worth revisiting the investment case. Post the announcement of several asset sales and the closing of the transaction, we are adjusting our estimates, raising our PT to $30 from $24, and maintaining our bullish view at current levels given what we still believe to be an attractive free cash flow valuation, meaningful potential synergy realization beyond the $40 mm of announced benefits, and a free option on a lagging regional recovery.

    Santarelli also revisited Las Vegas Sands and there too, he likes what he sees. He writes:

    With…LVS at [a share price level] that have been challenging to break from over the last year plus, we believe this time is different and hence we see continued upward momentum…In the case of LVS, we see; 1) meaningful mass market strength continuing through year end, setting the stage for upward company and market estimate revisions for 2014, 2) continued cash flow appreciation and capital returns serving as downside protection and positive catalysts, and 3) continued shared gains, largely driven by table optimization and mass market strength, driving both estimates and sentiment.

    He also likes Wynn Resorts (WYNN), despite its 34% gain.�Santarelli writes:

    As for WYNN, we believe near-term estimates continue to take a back seat to capital return

Top 10 Casino Companies For 2014: Penn National Gaming Inc.(PENN)

Penn National Gaming, Inc. and its subsidiaries own and manage gaming and pari-mutuel properties in the United States. It operates approximately 27,000 gaming machines; 500 table games; and 2,000 hotel rooms in 23 facilities in 16 jurisdictions, including Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ontario. The company was formerly known as PNRC Corp. and changed its name to Penn National Gaming, Inc. in 1994. Penn National Gaming, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Dow’s profit growth takes hit from changes

Nike blew away earnings estimates Thursday, allowing investors in the Dow Jones industrial average to celebrate the newest member of the roster. But it turns out the recent changes will still hurt the average's earnings growth.

Starting this week Nike, along with Goldman Sachs and Visa, joined the storied Dow index. These companies bumped out former members Bank of America, Alcoa and Hewlett-Packard this week.

Nike make a splash as a Dow rookie. The company late Thursday reported 10% better-than-expected profit of 86 cents a share, says S&P Capital IQ. Shares soared in after-hours trading.

DOW: Benchmark average adds Goldman Sachs, Nike, Visa

Yet Nike's impressive debut won't translate into higher growth for the Dow. Looking at expected earnings from the three additions and those that just got bumped means overall, the index will likely have lower year-over-year profit growth.

10 Best Financial Stocks To Own Right Now

The 30 companies in the Dow are expected to report third-quarter earnings growth of just 0.11%, including the results Nike reported Thursday, says John Butters of FactSet. That pales in comparison to the 2.8% growth the Dow was expected to report in the third quarter before the component changes.

Why? Bank of America. The bank would have been the No. 1 contributor to the Dow's earnings growth for the quarter. Consensus estimates are that Bank of America will post a quarterly profit of 21 cents a share, up from break-even in the third quarter a year ago, according to S&P Capital IQ research firm.

That quarterly growth surge is hard for the new entrants to the Dow to make up. Goldman Sachs' profit is expected to fall 7% in the third quarter and Visa is expected to post a 25% decline in profit, mostly due to accounting rule changes. Of course, excluding one-time expenses, Visa's earnings are expected to grow 21%.

Over the long haul, the th! ree newest members of the Dow may boost the benchmark index's results. But in the near term, missing out on Bank of America's earnings growth is a blow that even Nike's better-than-expected results can't overcome.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Buffalo Wild Wings: Not Just A Seasonal Play, Customers Coming In Herds For The Long-Term

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has been a hot growth stock, but this company has plenty of room to run higher as the firm continues to execute its domestic and international growth strategy. This is a company with huge potential in Restaurant and Services sector as the company's customer base continues to grow and remain loyal. Below is our introduction into its business model, it's strengths, and the buying opportunity that currently exists for Buffalo Wild Wings. Wall Street has not yet realized the full potential of this company as it continues to be seen as a seasonality play in this space. The company continues to prove this stigma wrong. The company has a market cap of $2.06 Billion and reports the next quarter on October 21, 2013. With this in mind, we value Buffalo Wild Wings at $123.00 by year-end of 2013 and $138.00 by May 1, 2014, an increase of 28% from current levels. We strongly feel that this company has the potential to see major upside over the next year and we could see the stock continue to run like Chipotle (CMG) or Panera (PNRA) in recent history. Dining and entertainment demand is growing and Buffalo Wild Wings continues to take market share, as the company has some of the best customer retention rates and average ticket sales in the sector. We will later highlight:

1) The future of restaurants and services and new opportunities for Buffalo Wild Wings

2) The economics of the BWLD business and industry overview

3) Growth drivers in the future

4) Cash/Valuation and Key Statistics vs. Best of Breed

Buffalo Wild Wings in Layman's Terms

Buffalo Wild Wings is involved in the ownership, operation, and franchise of restaurants primarily in the United States. It offers chicken, various food and beverage items; including bottled beers, wines, and liquor. As of July 30, 2013, the company owned, operated, and franchised approximately 930 Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar restaurants in the United States and Canada. The restaurants create a welcoming neighborho! od atmosphere which include an extensive multi-media system and full bar. The company has discovered a market that appeals to sports fans and families alike. At the end of 2012, BWLD sat at #18 on Forbes Best Small Companies List.

Buffalo Wild Wings Growth Strategy

Buffalo Wild Wings continues to expand domestically and has started to put the international expansion plan into action. The company continues to operate better than competition and has established strong brand loyalty from customers through strong media and advertising.

Continuing development to 1700 locations in the U.S. and Canada Driving sales through innovation and brandingSustaining net earnings growth by strong restaurant performance and infrastructure leveragingInternational growth through franchising Franchises being built in MexicoNegotiations completed in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and the PhilippinesIn-process negotiations occurring in Malaysia, Vietnam, and ChinaExpansion through emerging brands (PizzaRev - Buffalo Wild Wings experience, but with pizza)

Construction on restaurants is scheduled to begin this year in the Philippines, with restaurants planned for Makati City, and the Manila area. Restaurants in Mexico and the Middle East are nearing completion, earlier than expected for new customers to enjoy.

"The Philippines is among the fastest growing economies in Asia, so it is a natural choice for Buffalo Wild Wings. The economy is growing faster than China's and with an expanding middle class, there is a lot of enthusiasm for casual dining. The exciting sports atmosphere of the restaurant will fit perfectly with sports fans in the Philippines." - Matt Brokl, Vice President of International Development

Investors need to focus on the strong brand loyalty that Buffalo Wild Wings has created through effec! tive medi! a and advertising campaigns. This is an area of focus for the company and one of the areas of business that BWLD excels in order to keep the customers coming back, and not just for sporting events. Buffalo Wild Wings boasts a 98% customer retention rate, meaning that once an individual dines at the restaurant, it is almost a guarantee that it will return at some point in the future. The company also has one of the highest average ticket sales in the casual dining space at $27.54 per customer. By integrating technology and gaming into the dining experience, BWLD customers stay an average of 32 minutes longer than it would at other dining establishments, which leads to higher food and beverage sales. Some of the strengths can be seen from specialties in the food area, to the customer experience in general, including:

Food Innovation Sauces and seasonings"Build Your Own" flavorsSharable appetizersInsight-based developmentBeer Experience Craft offeringsValue selectionsUnique productsTastings and food pairingsBranded Event Days Wing TuesdaysBoneless ThursdaysCustomer Experience DIRECTV® for every game availableProprietary BDubs TV ChannelTablet-based guest technologyAdvertising and Media Memorable ad campaignsNational TV presenceEngaging fans with social media and online marketingBuffalo Wild Wings BowlNCAA Sponsorship of all 89 championships

Buffalo Wild Wings Year-To-Date

As of June 30, 2013, BWLD owns and operates 407 company-owned stores and franchised an additional 525 Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar restaurants in North America. The company is looking to grow the Buffalo Wild Wings brand to about 1,700 locations in North America alone and to about 300 internationally, continuing the strategy of developing both company-owned and franchised restaurants.

The company will open 58 company-owned and 45 franchised restaurants in 2013. With continued same-store sales momentum and consistent cost reduction, the company should achieve 17% net earnings growth for 2013. Buffalo Wi! ld Wings ! is entering the sweet spot of the year with the NFL, NHL, and NBA seasons beginning and the MLB Playoffs set to start in the coming weeks. Increased customer traffic will lead to higher overall trend in average weekly sales and cash flow per location, as the company remains committed to high quality operations and guest experience.

Buffalo Wild Wings Weekly Sales Trends (in Millions)

Sales at company-owned restaurants represented 94% of total revenue in the second quarter of 2013. Food and nonalcoholic beverages accounted for 78% of restaurant sales. The remaining 22% of restaurant sales was from alcoholic beverages. The menu items with the highest sales volume are boneless and traditional wings at 20% and 19%, respectively. Royalties and franchise fees make up the other 6% of total revenue for 2013.

Results of Operations for the Second Quarter of 2013

Restaurant sales have increased by 29.4%, to $285.4 million in 2013 from $220.6 million in 2012. Franchise royalties and fees increased by $1.4 million, or 7.9%, to $19.6 million in 2013 from $18.2 million in 2012. The increase was primarily due to royalties related to additional sales at 20 more franchised restaurants in operation at the end of the period compared to prior year, and an increase in same-store sales for franchised restaurants of 4.1% in the second quarter of 2013.

Buffalo Wild Wings Same Store Sales Growth vs. Casual Dining Sector

Top 5 Casino Companies For 2014

Results of Operations Yea! r-To-Date!

Restaurant sales have increased by $117.0 million, or 25.8%, to $569.8 million in 2013 from $452.9 million in 2012. The increase in restaurant sales was due to a $106.3 million increase from 27 new company-owned restaurants that opened by the end of second quarter and $10.7 million from a 2.6% increase in same-store sales.

Franchise royalties and fees increased by 6.9%, to $39.5 million in 2013 from $37.0 million in 2012. The increase was primarily due to royalties related to additional sales at 20 more franchised restaurants in operation at the end of the period compared to prior year. These are important numbers to pay attention to when looking for trends that will continue into the future. From 2010 to 2012, the number of company owned stores increased by 47.1% while the number of franchise stores grew by 7.82%. When looking at revenue over this same time period, we can see that revenue from company owned stores increased by 73.63%, while revenue from franchises increased by 31.55%. As BWLD continues to increase its store count, investors can expect to see revenue generation far outpace the addition of new stores.

Buffalo Wild Wings Store Count

Buffalo Wild Wings Revenue Trends (in Billions)

Fiscal Year 2012 Compared to Fiscal Year 2011

Restaurant sales increased by $246.6 million, or 34.4%, to $964.0 million in 2012 from $717.4 million in 2011. Franchise royalties and fees increased by $9.5 million, or 14.1%, to $76.6 million in 2012 from $67.1 million in 2011. The increase was primarily due to royalties related to additional sales at 12 more franchised restaurants in operation at the end of the period compared to prior year, and an increase in same-store sales for franchised restaurants of 6.5% in 2012. Some of the company highlights for 2012 were:

BWLD increased com! pany pres! ence with 74 net additional restaurants in North America, ending the year with 891 locations in 49 states and Canada.Sales increases helped to drive a 32.6% increase in revenue and helped the company surpass the one billion dollar mark in revenue for 2012.Achieved strong sales in new and existing restaurants to deliver net earnings growth of 13.6% - provided substantial value to shareholders with earnings per share of $3.06 for the year.Kept focus on long-term success by investing in technology and innovation in restaurants.

Over the last three years, Buffalo Wild Wings has seen gross profit increase by almost 61%. This trend will continue in the future as revenue generation continues to outpace the addition of new stores.

As a valuation play, it is tough to compare Buffalo Wild Wings to direct competitors such as Hooter's, Tilted Kilt, Wing House, and others, which are privately held companies. But when compared to another casual dining experience such as Panera , Buffalo Wild Wings does trade at a pretty significant discount on a Price/Sales and Price/Cash Flow basis. Panera trades at a 2.21 Price/Sales and 17.51 Price/Cash Flow while Buffalo Wild Wings trades at 1.77 and 14.98, respectively.

Sales Growth is another key metric to look at in the Restaurant and Services Sector. Even though Hooters is a privately held company with a similar business model, the company has made news in recent history with significant store closings all over the country because of slowing sales. With sales growth of 32.64%, Buffalo Wild Wings has proven that a high quality product can be successful and sustainable.

Buffalo Wild Wings boasts a nice Gross Profit Margin at 42.21%, which outpaces other best of breed companies such as Chipotle at 26.52%. The company also generates a nice amount of Cash Flow Per Share at $7.31.

Buffalo Wild Wings is in a strong position from a financial standpoint as the company currently has very little debt at $30.25 Million and plenty of cash to expand operations.

Obviously when looking at these measures, BWLD is succeeding on all fronts. When specifically focusing on the ROA of 10.94%, the company is performing well when it comes to the operating efficiency based on the firm's generated profits from total assets. The ROE of 15.62% shows the solid performance in terms of the shareholders rate of return on investments. The ROI of 13.32 shows the firm's efficiency in utilizing invested capital. BWLD has outperformed its peers and with big opportunities approaching in the near future, expect this outperformance to continue.

(click to enlarge)

What Investors Need to Know

Buffalo Wild Wings is a highly undervalued restaurant and service company with huge potential on an international level. Traditionally, investors and Wall Street have seen this company as a seasonality play, but that is simply not the case based on the customer trends we discussed. We believe that the aggressive international business model will provide huge growth opportunities for the company going forward. The next earnings release will give investors insight into how the beginning of the strong season for BWLD is going so far. Expect this company to continue to outperform in the dining and entertainment space ! as it has! one of the industry's best business models and management teams. The first half of the year proved that the company has adapted and can weather tougher dining environments and poor trends in overall casual dining, while positioning itself for the second half of the year.

With this in mind, we value BWLD at $123.00 by year-end of 2013 and $138.00 by June 1, 2014, an increase of 28% from current levels. We arrive at this number by assuming that Buffalo Wild Wings will continue to trade at its current P/E multiple of 34.17 (only slightly above the industry standard, which is warranted) and this year's EPS estimate of $3.63 ($3.63*34=$123.42).

Source: Buffalo Wild Wings: Not Just A Seasonal Play, Customers Coming In Herds For The Long-Term

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Additional disclosure: AlphaStreetResearch is a team of Investment Research Analysts. This article was written by Mr. Hunter Orr, Director of Research, with research assistance from Mr. Aaron Zander, Junior Research Analyst.

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Correlation Study - September 10, 2013

A positive linear correlation is usually present between the Copper Continuous Futures contract and the Gold Continuous Futures contract, as depicted by the blue histogram here consistently staying in positive territory. The histogram is showing the coefficient R between the two securities using percentage moves with a rolling period of 6 months. Notice that for the last few years, periods of declining positive correlation have been associated with down-moves and increased volatility for the S&P 500 E-mini (see highlighted periods in sub-graph 3). Keep in mind also that copper has traditionally been viewed as an indicator for economic trends and equity markets. The positive correlation between copper and gold has recently started to come under pressure, which could possibly translate into a period of increased volatility for Futures traders going forward.

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Written by Frederic Palmliden, CMT, Senior Quantitative Analyst, TradeStation.

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Saturday, September 21, 2013

Microsoft Is a Must-Have for Your Portfolio

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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Strange looks and "Oh, OK" are typically the responses I receive when I tell people that Microsoft (MSFT) and General Electric (GE) are the stocks they should buy.

When people ask me for stock tips, I know that most of the time they're thinking of companies that will make them a lot of money quickly.

But they should be thinking instead about stocks that will deliver a better-than-average return with the least amount of risk.

If your eyes aren't sore from staring at charts and Securities and Exchange Commission filings all day, leave the home runs to the traders who can get in and out of securities before you even hear about the news. Some stocks are natural fits for long-term investors who seek to build real wealth over time. As a rule, this means dividend-paying stocks that dominate their space and don't have issues on their balance sheets or income statements. I've touted the virtues of Microsoft (MSFT) for more than a year, but the company remains a strong buy. You may think of "Mr. Softee" as little more than the maker of Windows, but that's a mistake. Microsoft's Azure is also one of the biggest players in cloud computing. Microsoft maybe the largest player by revenue when you consider that Amazon.com (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Rackspace (RACK), IBM ( IBM), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and others are all paying Microsoft for every Windows-based server they host. From my experience, Azure was much easier and straightforward to set up than Amazon's AWS. Both are priced about the same, giving Microsoft the edge due to a smaller learning curve. Cloud computing isn't where the real money is, not yet at least. And business software, Microsoft's cash cow, has proven it can compete against free software relatively easy. MSFT Operating Income Annual ChartMSFT Operating Income Annual data by YCharts The market reacted positively to the announcement of CEO Steve Ballmer stepping down even though operating profits have climbed at a rapid pace since Ballmer took over in 2000. The company has the resources to hire the very best talent, and you can expect another pop higher in shares once the replacement is announced.

For now, it's the dividend that investors should focus on. Stocks raising their dividend payments have a history of outperforming nondividend stocks. Today's 3% dividend can turn into a 6% yield in about five years at only half the rate of growth recently announced.

If you think Microsoft can't become exciting and its time has passed, think again and take a look at Yahoo!'s (YHOO) chart. Sure, some of the gain is from investments in Alibaba, but remove that gain, and you can see what an active, hard-charging CEO can do.

Microsoft is next, don't miss it.

At the time of publication, Weinstein had no positions in stocks mentioned. Follow @RobertWeinstein This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Robert Weinstein is an active trader focusing on the psychological importance of risk mitigation, emotion and financial behavior of market participants. Robert co-founded the investing blog StockSaints, where he writes a journal about his trading activity and experiences. In addition to TheStreet, Robert also contributes to Real Money Pro, providing real-time trading ideas for stocks, options and futures.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Stock Market Crash Talk Gains More Steam

What is a stock market crash? The short answer is that it depends on your risk profile. The financial media covers a one-day drop of 4% as though it were a crash. What happened after the terror attacks in 2001 was a crash. What happened going into the recession of 2008 and 2009 was a crash. The market crash of 1987 was a crash. The bull market of 2013 is not yet dead, but talk is picking up for another market crash, even if the logic and reasoning is different in each major discussion.

Here is what is working against the bulls. The debt ceiling debate is back. Earnings growth is slowing at a time when sales growth is almost nonexistent. Greece and Italy are in the “at risk” headlines again. Emerging markets and BRIC nations just are not supporting the wild growth we all have been used to. Interest rates are rising, even while economic data remains very mixed. Egypt and Syria are becoming serious risks beyond mere discussion. And the market internals are getting more questionable. Valuations of U.S. stocks are not overly expensive, but they are not cheap anymore either.

We already had a serious call for a crash, one of 10% to 20% as a possible mirror of 1987, by gloom and doom preacher Marc Faber. And now the latest trading glitch by NASDAQ OMX Group (NASDAQ: NDAQ) brought back memories of the so-called Flash Crash. It also was just shown that margin debt, borrowing against existing stock holdings, is at a record high.

Before you go hit the panic button, note that some believe a mini-crash would be a great entry point. We still have a live call from a technician that the S&P 500 Index is heading north of 2,500 for a secular bull market. Many investors have missed the rally almost in its entirety. If interest rates truly are going to rise further, as the risks sure seem, then it almost certainly has to be in anticipation of real economic growth returning. After all, stagflation is merely too painful an outcome after all the stimulus that has been thrown at this market.

Our own news screener is running light on the actual term “stock market crash” on Tuesday. What is not light the past three trading days are more than elevated. A news screener on EIN shows the past three days as the highest of any going back to May.

If you truly are scared of a stock market crash, there are many things you can do. You can lighten up on how much stock you own and slide into cash for a while. You can buy bonds, though the risks of rising interest rates still seem to outweigh the hope of lower interest rates. You can sell call options to increase income or hope your shares get called away at higher prices. And you can even buy put options.

This may be a quiet week based on weeks ahead of Labor Day in most years. That does not mean that you have to put your pocket-book and brain away from risks. Keep in mind that so far in 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average itself and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) are up more than 15%, and the S&P 500 Index and the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) are both up more than 16%, as of Tuesday, August 27, 2013. It almost seems painful to consider this notion, but perhaps a mini stock market crash just needs to happen.

Monday, September 16, 2013

PMI Shows Manufacturing and Employment Ahead of Labor Department Data

The Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI has released its final data for the month of August, showing a drop as output growth slowed to 10-month low. The report came in at 53.1, versus 53.7 in July and 53.9 on the flash estimate. The report signals a slower but moderate rate of manufacturing expansion. Other notes showed that the new orders increase at solid pace, while input price pressures eased and showing the second month of job creation.

Total new business rose at the fastest rate in seven months but was actually slower than the flash data. Markit said:

A slower rate of output growth was one of the factors behind the weaker improvement in operating conditions. Production rose in August, but the rate of growth was the slowest since October 2012. Consumer and intermediate goods producers reported weaker output trends, but makers of investment goods saw a stronger rate of increase.

On the jobs front, employment in the manufacturing sector rose for the second consecutive month, and the overall rate of job creation was little-changed from July. All three market groups saw an increase in staff numbers, with the largest gains seen in the consumer goods sector.

Here is the full PMI report. We have also included a graphic showing a breakdown on each.

PMI AUGSource: Markit

Friday, September 13, 2013

When's The Best Time To Get Back To Out Of Favor Stocks

Facebook Facebook, Sears, Best Buy Best Buy, and J. C. Penney are in different kinds of business. But they have something in common: Their stocks were out of favor at some point in the last two years.

The problem? They all had a broken business model. Facebook failed to monetize effectively its huge membership. Sears tried to become a real estate trust rather than a retailer, Best Buy became a showroom for Amazon.com Amazon.com. And J.C. Penney tried to be more like Apple Apple than Macy's.

In the last six months, Facebook and BestBuy's stocks have rebounded nicely, while Sears and J. C.Penney are still struggling. What has made the difference is this: Facebook and Best Buy have managed to fix their business model and regain momentum, while J.C. Penney and Sears are still working on it.

Here is how it happened.

Facebook

After being out of favor with Wall Street for more than a year, Facebook 's (FB) stock recently rebounded nicely. The catalyst? Strong Q2 results that beat analyst estimates by a wide margin (on the top line). Most notably, Facebook saw a big jump in mobile users and ads, areas where the company has been weak in the past.

Facebook successfully addressed two issues every web-based company faces. The first issue is size — that is membership and traffic. With hundreds of millions of members around the globe, Facebook is unquestionably the largest social site, providing the company both economies of scale (the benefits associated with a larger organization) and economies of networking (the benefits associated with a larger and larger number of people using a certain product or service).

The second issue is monetization of membership and traffic. With revenues exceeding $1.81 billion for last quarter, Facebook demonstrated that it could be a highly profitable company.

Best Buy

Once upon a time—before Amazon.com expand into the consumer electronics market—Best Buy was getting bigger and better, capitalizing on benefits associated with the opening of bigger stores in prime locations. Its revenues, profits and stock soared, catching the attention of business strategists and stock analysts.

After Amazon.com threw its hat in the ring, however, the game changed. Best Buy continued to get bigger, but not better. Its assets—location and scale—turned to liabilities.

In what has come to be known as "show-rooming," customers did their window-shopping at Best Buy, but did their actual shopping at Amazon.com — which offered better prices than Best Buy.

Best Buy's revenues, profits, and stock headed south. Business strategists and stock analysts were concerned about the future of the company.

In recent months, Best Buy seems to be getting its business model right, as reflected in its recent earnings reports. The company is capitalizing again on the benefits of scale and location, in two ways.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Doctor Pepper Snapple Goes Ex-Dividend Tomorrow

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Doctor Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (DPS) is a mature business, and a remarkably shareholder friendly one at that. The dividend yield is currently a hefty 3.41%, and the company has bought back 6% of its shares through the past three years. An investor can sensibly look for income and capital appreciation with long-term horizons. The stock goes ex-dividend in the near future, on Sept. 12, and scrutiny is appropriate.

There are considerations. The Coca-Cola Company (KO), an outsized peer, has been underperforming, though it maintains one of the highest industry multiples. Its results may not bode well for DPS. It also is not clear how much of an effect Soda Stream International (SODA), which offers homemade carbonated beverages, might have on the future revenues soft drink companies.



Some graphics from Doctor Pepper Snapple's second quarter investor presentation illustrates reasons for hesitation. Aside from Snapple and Mott's, bottle case sales volume is decelerating.

[ Enlarge Image ]

While the company does an admirable job returning cash to shareholders, its balance sheet appears weak. Data from July 2013 shows $113 million in cash against $2.5 billion in long term debt. The Altman Z-Score is 2.08, and graphically in the grey area. Distress could manifest within two years. Noting the foot note below, $531 million in second quarter cash from operating activities is due to licensing agreements with Coke and Pepsi.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Thomson First Call shows a 2.7 analyst recommendation with a median price target of $50. The analysts project $3.28 in 2014 earnings and a 7.53% five-year growth rate, which is not of itself a bargain, nor expensive. Overall, t! hey find it to be slightly out of favor with some upside.

The top mutual fund manager, Peter Lynch, may have liked this stock, however. According to his formula for fair value, the DPS is worth $73.05. A case might be made for value.

There are some gurus aboard. Ray Dalio has a small position opened on June 30. Joel Greenblatt has been building one since 2011. Meridian Funds also makes DPS 0.02% of its portfolio.

However, there is a lack of catalysts and no obvious reason for shares to appreciate. There has not been significant buying amongst insiders. From my perspective, it is going to require a lower stock price or higher dividend yield to make DPS worthwhile.

After this quarter, it should have paid $0.38 four consecutive times, and an increase should be increasingly probable. The corporation's three-year growth rate leads the industry. If the stock trades at under $44 it would be more compelling; its 52 week low is $42.10. Hypothetically, if shares are purchased at $43, the yield would be 3.5%, and with an increase to $0.40, 3.72%. It is a situation worth monitoring because the payout ratio is around 50%, indicating that the payments are sustainable — though cash flow from operating activities is trending low.

DPS returns capital to shareholders, making it appealing for ownership. However, the company itself is not indicating that high performance is likely. Therefore, it seems better to forgo an imminent dividend payment and wait for a better deal to present itself.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Will Ford Motor Revive Its Legacy?

With shares of Ford Motor (NYSE:F) trading around $15, is F an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Ford Motor is a producer of cars and trucks. The company also engages in other businesses, including financing vehicles. Ford Motor operates in two sectors: Automotive and Financial Services. Through its sectors, Ford Motor provides a wide range of vehicles and vehicle parts and services to a multitude of consumers and companies worldwide. The company’s vehicles saw declining demand over the last several years as gasoline prices took a major toll on pockets. Ford Motor is now revolutionizing its vehicles in order to compete at the world stage. Look for Ford Motor to fuel a recovery in the American automobile industry and provide highly demanded vehicles, parts, and services.

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Ford Motor stock has seen its fair share of volatility over the last several years. The stock has surged higher this year and is looking to attack previous resistance levels near $16-$17 per share. A solid break a move could see this stock really flying in the longer-term. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Ford Motor is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

F

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Ford Motor options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Ford Motor Options

30.39%

76%

73%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

June Options

Flat

Average

July Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Ford Motor’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Ford Motor look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

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2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

14.29%

-88.17%

0%

-55.93%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

10.37%

5.34%

-2.65%

-6.52%

Earnings Reaction

-0.22%

-4.64%

8.59%

-0.99%

Ford Motor has seen mixed earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets seem to expect a little more from Ford Motor’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Ford Motor stock done relative to its peers, General Motors (NYSE:GM), Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA), and sector?

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Ford Motor

General Motors

Toyota Motor

Tesla Motors

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

22.78%

20.19%

29.19%

209.3%

22.52%

Ford Motor has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Ford Motor is revolutionizing its vehicles and hoping to make American vehicles a very competitive option for most consumers and companies around the world. The stock is on a strong run that has put it near a critical price level where a solid break higher may see it coasting towards prices not seen in years. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been mixed which has led to investors expecting a little more. Relative to its peers and sector, Ford Motor has been a year-to-date average performer. WAIT AND SEE if Ford Motor can break above these key price levels.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

It Cannot Get Any Worse at Sears — Except at J.C. Penney

For those who had hoped that Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) would break out of its multiyear revenue and earnings funk, think again. After too many management changes to count, and fits and starts of redesigning its K-Mart and Sears stores, majority holder and CEO Eddie Lampert botched it again.

There is no reason to go beyond the retail holding company’s press release:

Second Quarter Revenues and Comparable Store Sales Revenues decreased $596 million to $8.9 billion for the quarter ended August 3, 2013, as compared to revenues of $9.5 billion for the quarter ended July 28, 2012.

And:

For the quarter, domestic comparable store sales declined 1.5%, comprised of decreases of 2.1% at Kmart and 0.8% at Sears Domestic. The decline at Kmart reflects decreases in our transactional categories, such as grocery & household, pharmacy and drugstore. It also includes declines in consumer electronics and toys. These decreases were partially offset by increases in the footwear and lawn & garden categories.

Of course, Sears Holdings lost money. Last year the net loss was $133 million. This year that improved to a loss of $127 million.

Lampert was crazy enough to paint the picture as OK:

“We made meaningful progress this quarter in our transformation to a member-centric company. Shop Your Way members represented over 65% of our sales and they redeemed rewards points at a significantly higher rate than last year. While the increase in Shop Your Way promotional activity and member redemptions resulted in a meaningful increase in our costs, it demonstrates that our members are deepening their engagement with our program which will allow us to further accelerate our transformation,” commented Eddie Lampert, Sears Holdings’ Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “At the same time, we recognize how important it is to improve the profitability of our company and I am disappointed that we did not deliver a better result.”

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So, stronger engagement, but weaker sales.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Top 10 Safest Companies To Watch For 2014

Wall Street is synonymous with global financial strength.

But have you actually been therein a while? It's a ghost town, even in the middle of the day.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the media-to-trader ratio is probably about 10-to-1 (to the left is a picture I took last week). Floor traders have been replaced by computers, many of which are located hundreds of miles from Wall Street. Major banks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) are headquartered away from the Street, in different parts of New York (partly for security reasons -- banks don't want to be clustered around each other).

Top 10 Safest Companies To Watch For 2014: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras(PBR)

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. primarily engages in oil and natural gas exploration and production, refining, trade, and transportation businesses. The company?s Exploration and Production segment involves in the exploration, production, development, and production of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas in Brazil. This segment supplies its products to the refineries in Brazil, as well as sells surplus petroleum and byproducts in domestic and foreign markets. Its Supply segment engages in the refining, logistics, transportation, and trade of oil and oil products; export of ethanol; and extraction and processing of schist, as well as holds interests in companies of the petrochemical sector in Brazil. The Gas and Energy segment involves in the transportation and trade of natural gas produced in or imported into Brazil; transportation and trade of LNG; and generation and trade of electric power. In addition, the segment has interests in natural gas transportation and d istribution companies; and thermoelectric power stations in Brazil, as well engages in fertilizer business. The Distribution segment distributes oil products, ethanol, and compressed natural gas in Brazil. The International segment involves in the exploration and production of oil and gas, as well as in supplying, gas and energy, and distribution operations in the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Further, the company involves in biofuel production business. Petroleo Brasileiro was founded in 1953 and is based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dave Friedman]

    Institutional investors bought 78,663,680 shares and sold 101,125,380 shares, for a net of -22,461,700 shares. This net represents 0.23% of common shares outstanding. The number of shares outstanding is 9,872,826,100. The shares recently traded at $27.61 and the company’s market capitalization is $170,178,700,000.00. About the company: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras explores for and produces oil and natural gas. The Company refines, markets, and supplies oil products. Petrobras operates oil tankers, distribution pipelines, marine, river and lake terminals, thermal power plants, fertilizer plants, and petrochemical units. The Company operates in South America and elsewhere around the world.

Top 10 Safest Companies To Watch For 2014: Under Armour Inc.(UA)

Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes performance apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and youth primarily in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers products made from moisture-wicking synthetic fabrics designed to regulate body temperature and enhance performance regardless of weather conditions. The company provides its products in three fit types: compression (tight fitting), fitted (athletic cut), and loose (relaxed) extending across the sporting goods, outdoor, and active lifestyle markets. Its footwear offerings comprise football, baseball, lacrosse, softball, and soccer cleats; slides; performance training footwear; and running footwear. The company also provides baseball batting, football, golf, and running gloves, as well as licenses bags, socks, headwear, custom-molded mouth guards, and eyewear that are designed to be used and worn before, during, and after competition. Under Armour sells its products through retai l stores, as well as directly to consumers through its own retail outlets and specialty stores, Website, and catalogs. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Glenn]  

    Current Price: $27.27 12-month target: $37

    I see potential in opportunities for new product adjacencies, and expanding distribution worldwide. Footwear growth will continue to increase. Revenues for these products have increased over 69% in 2009. Adding to this I still see growth in Under Armour’s apparel sales, which are up 8%. Under Armor had yet to even break into the international market, which offers a plethora of new opportunities for this growing brand. I believe sales will rise drastically in 2010 driven by international sales, new women’s clothing line, and expansion within their own footwear line.
  • [By Victor Mora]

    Under Armour provides athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories to a growing health and wellness, athletic, and fitness enthusiast population around the world. The stock has been on a powerful move towards higher prices that has led to it trading at all-time highs. Earnings and revenue figures have increased over most of the last four quarters which has led to excited investors. Relative to its peers and sector, Under Armour has led in year-to-date performance by a wide margin. Look for Under Armour to OUTPERFORM.

Top Undervalued Stocks To Watch For 2014: Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(The)

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides investment banking, securities, and investment management services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net-worth individuals worldwide. Its Investment Banking segment offers financial advisory, including advisory assignments with respect to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense, risk management, restructurings, and spin-offs; and underwriting securities, loans and other financial instruments, and derivative transactions. The company?s Institutional Client Services segment provides client execution activities, such as fixed income, currency, and commodities client execution related to making markets in interest rate products, credit products, mortgages, currencies, and commodities; and equities related to making markets in equity products, as well as commissions and fees from executing and clearing institutional client transactions on stock, options, and fu tures exchanges. This segment also engages in the securities services business providing financing, securities lending, and other prime brokerage services to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, and foundations. Its Investing and Lending segment invests in debt securities, loans, public and private equity securities, real estate, consolidated investment entities, and power generation facilities. This segment also involves in the origination of loans to provide financing to clients. The company?s Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment products to institutional and individual clients. This segment also offers wealth advisory services, including portfolio management and financial counseling, and brokerage and other transaction services to high-net-worth individuals and families. In addition, it provides global investment research services. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Top 10 Safest Companies To Watch For 2014: Fluor Corporation(FLR)

Fluor Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides engineering, procurement, construction, maintenance, and project management services worldwide. Its Oil & Gas segment offers design, engineering, procurement, construction, and project management services to upstream oil and gas production, downstream refining, chemicals, and petrochemicals industries. This segment also provides consulting services comprising feasibility studies, process assessment, and project finance structuring and studies. The company?s Industrial & Infrastructure segment offers design, engineering, procurement, and construction services to the transportation, wind power, mining and metals, life sciences, manufacturing, commercial and institutional, telecommunications, microelectronics, and healthcare sectors. Its Government segment provides engineering, construction, logistics support, contingency response, management, and operations services to the United States government focusing on the Departme nt of Energy, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of Defense. The company?s Global Services segment offers operations and maintenance, small capital project engineering and execution, site equipment and tool services, industrial fleet services, plant turnaround services, temporary staffing services, and supply chain solutions. Its Power segment provides engineering, procurement, construction, program management, start-up and commissioning, and operations and maintenance services to the gas fueled, solid fueled, plant betterment, renewables, nuclear, and power services markets. The company also offers unionized management and construction services in the United States and Canada. Fluor Corporation was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By CRWE]

    Fluor Corporation�� (NYSE:FLR) Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Seaton, and Chief Financial Officer, Biggs Porter, will give a presentation to investors at the Credit Suisse 2012 Engineering & Construction Conference in New York on Thursday, June 7 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

4 Huge Stocks on Traders' Radars

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It's time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.

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From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It's a concept that's known as "crowdsourcing," and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.

Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.

While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis. Today, we'll leverage the power of the crowd to take a look at some of the most active stocks on the market today.

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These "most active" names are the most heavily-traded names on the market -- and often, uber-active names have some sort of a technical or fundamental catalyst driving investors' attention on shares. That's especially true now that earnings season is officially underway. And when there's a big catalyst, there's often a trading opportunity.

Without further ado, here's a look at today's stocks.

Microsoft

Nearest Resistance: $36

Nearest Support: $31

Catalyst: Ballmer Retiring

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Shares of tech giant Microsoft (MSFT) were up more than 7% in Friday's trading after CEO Steve Ballmer announced that he'd be retiring in the next year. Apparently, investors think that getting rid of Ballmer adds $20 billion to Microsoft's value -- a sentiment that probably stings in spite of the extra $840 million that Ballmer is worth as a result of the news. While the folks in Redmond, Wash., start searching for a successor to Ballmer, shares of Microsoft look well-positioned to continue to climb.

From a technical standpoint, Microsoft made a short-term double bottom that triggered on the huge gap-up. That puts MSFT within grabbing range of the $36 resistance level that swatted shares down earlier this summer. If shares crack $36, I'd be a buyer.

Facebook

Nearest Resistance: N/A

Nearest Support: $38

Catalyst: Analyst Note, Technical Setup

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Another tech name that gained big to end last week was Facebook (FB). The social network pushed to new highs after news hit on a bullish market note from ITG Research that pointed to third-quarter North American revenue hitting $920 million. The technical setup in shares didn't hurt either -- FB broke out above former resistance at $39, pushing up to new all-time highs.

Making new highs is significant from an investor psychology standpoint because it means that everyone who has bought shares in the last year is sitting on gains. As a result, the "back to even" mentality is less of a concern than it would be for a name with a higher proportion of shareholders sitting on losses. Investors who aren't risk-averse may want to consider jumping in here; just keep a tight stop in place.

Halliburton

Nearest Resistance: N/A

Nearest Support: $46

Catalyst: Oversubscribed Tender Offer

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Halliburton (HAL) is another name that broke out to new highs late last week, in this case thanks to an oversubscribed tender offer for shares that had investors unloading HAL en masse. Normally, dumping shares isn't a good thing for stock prices, but because HAL was simultaneously buying them, the market for shares wasn't affected. Instead, the firm ended up buying more of its outstanding stock than expected, a move that effectively increases each remaining investor's stake in the company.

Buying HAL here makes sense as a trade for all of the same reasons as Facebook. The sellers are out of this stock for the time being.

Marvell Technology Group

Nearest Resistance: $13.50

Nearest Support: $11

Catalyst: Earnings, Guidance

>>5 Stocks Triggering Breakouts on Big Volume

Last up is Marvell Technology Group (MRVL). The $6 billion fabless semiconductor firm got hit after posting earnings and guidance, dropping more than 6.5% on Friday despite earning 23 cents per share for the quarter -- a number that beat Wall Street estimates by 4 cents. MRVL's numbers may have beaten those expectations, but Friday's price action shows that they didn't beat everyone's.

From a technical standpoint, MRVL is right at support right now. In other words, it's make-or-break time for this stock. If MRVL can hold above the 50-day moving average this week, then it makes sense to be a buyer. Otherwise, now's the time to take gains before MRVL gives them all back.

To see these stocks in action, check out the at Most-Active Stocks portfolio on Stockpickr.



-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


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>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar



>>5 High-Yield Tech Stocks Poised to Boost Dividends



>>4 Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Corporate insiders sell their own companies' stock for a number of reasons.

They might need the cash for a big personal purchase such as a new house or yacht, or they might need the cash to fund a charity. Sometimes they sell as part of a planned selling program that they have put in place for diversification purposes, which allows them to sell stock in stages instead of selling all at one price.

Other times they sell because they think their stock is overvalued and the risk/reward is no longer attractive. Some even dump their own stock because they have inside knowledge that a competitor is eating their lunch and stealing market share.

But insiders usually buy their own shares for one reason: They think the stock is a bargain and has tremendous upside.

The key word in that last statement is "think." Just because a corporate insider thinks his or her stock is going to trade higher, that doesn't mean it will play out that way. Insiders can have all the conviction in the world that their stock is a buy, but if the market doesn't agree with them, the stock could end up going nowhere. Also, I say "usually" because sometimes insiders are loaned money by the company to buy their own stock. Those loans are often sweetheart deals and shouldn't be viewed as organic insider buying.

At the end of the day, its large institutional money managers running big mutual funds and hedge funds that drive stock prices, not insiders. That said, many of these savvy stock operators will follow insider buying activity when they agree with the insider that the stock is undervalued and has upside potential. This is why it's so important to always be monitoring insider activity, but it's twice as important to make sure the trend of the stock coincides with the insider buying.

Recently, a number of companies' corporate insiders have bought large amounts of stock. These insiders are finding some value in the market, which warrants a closer look at these stocks. Here's a look at several stocks that insiders have been doing some big buying in per SEC filings.

Tessera Technologies

One technology player that insiders are snapping up a large amount of stock in here is Tessera Technologies (TSRA), which, through its subsidiaries, develops, licenses and delivers miniaturization technologies and products for electronic devices worldwide. Insiders are buying this stock into decent strength, since shares are up 19% so far in 2013.

Tessera Technologies has a market cap of $1.06 billion and an enterprise value of $641 million. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings of 12.15. Its estimated growth rate for the next quarter is 237.5%, and for next year it's pegged at 374.6%. This is a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $380.51 million and its total debt is zero. This stock currently sports a dividend yield of 2.1%.

A director just bought 400,000 shares, or about $7.57 million worth of stock, at $18.79 to $19.11 a share.

From a technical perspective, TSRA is currently trending below its 50-day moving average and above its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been downtrending for the last month and change, with shares dropping from its high of $22.59 to its recent low of $18.62 a share. During that downtrend, shares of TSRA have been making mostly lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of TSRA have started to rebound off that $18.62 low and it's starting to move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on TSRA, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some near-term support levels at $18.62 to its 200-day at $18.14 and then once it takes out its 50-day at $20.77 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 341,611 shares. If we get that move soon, then TSRA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $22.59 a share. If that level gets taken out with volume, then TSRA could easily hit $25 a share.

Leucadia National

Another holding company that insiders are loading up on here is Leucadia National (LUK), which invests in beef processing, manufacturing, telecommunications, gaming, real estate, energy, medical product development and winery operations. Insiders are buying this stock into notable strength, since shares are up 12.6% so far in 2013.

Leucadia National has a market cap of $9.7 billion and an enterprise value of $11.2 billion. This stock trades at a cheap valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 8.34. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $18.82 billion and its total debt is $20.20 billion. This stock currently sports a dividend yield of 0.90%.

A director just bought 40,000 shares, or about $1.06 million worth of stock, at $26.55 per share.

From a technical perspective, LUK is currently trending just below its 50-day moving average and just above its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been consolidating for the last month, with shares moving sideways between $27.98 on the upside and $26.38 on the downside. A high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern could trigger a big breakout trade for shares of LUK.

If you're in the bull camp on LUK, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its 200-day at $26.30 or above more support at $25.61, and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $27.42 to $27.98 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that registers near or above its three-month average action of 1.34 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then LUK will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $31.78 to $32.36 a share.

Halcon Resources

One energy player that insiders are active in here is Halcon Resources (HK), which is engaged in the acquisition, development, exploitation, exploration and production of oil and natural gas properties. Insiders are buying this stock into notable weakness, since shares are off by 22% so far in 2013.

Halcon Resources has a market cap of $1.99 billion and an enterprise value of $4.71 billion. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 112.50 and a forward price-to-earnings of 12.56. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 900%, and for next year it's pegged at 79.2%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $3.06 million and its total debt is $2.71 billion.

A director just bought 200,000 shares, or about $1.02 million worth of stock, at $5.10 per share. A beneficial owner also just bought 5.2 million shares, or about $26.44 million worth of stock, at $5.10 per share.

From a technical perspective, HK is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been downtrending badly for the last six months, with shares moving lower from its high of $8.12 to its recent low of $4.92 a share. During that downtrend, shares of HK have been making mostly lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, this stock has started to find some buying interest off some previous support areas at $4.92 to $5.10 a share.

If you're bullish on HK, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some key near-term support levels at $5.10 to $4.92 and then once it breaks out back above its 50-day at $5.67 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 5.14 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then HK will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $6.11 to $6.54 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give HK a chance to tag $6.75 to $6.84 a share.

Hansen Medical

One health care player that insiders are active in here is Hansen Medical (HNSN), which develops, manufactures and markets new generation of medical robotics for accurate positioning, manipulation and stable control of catheters and catheter-based technologies. Insiders are buying this stock into relative weakness, since shares are off by 19.2% so far in 2013.

Hansen Medical has a market cap of $113 million and an enterprise value of $118 million. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a price-to-sales of 7.13. Its estimated growth rate for this year is -3%, and for next year it's pegged at 36.2%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $21.08 million and its total debt is $29.57 million.

A beneficial owner just bought 8.1 million shares, or about $9.96 million worth of stock, at $1.23 per share.

From a technical perspective, HNSN is currently trending above its 50-day and just below is 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock recently spiked up sharply from its low of $1.14 to its recent high of $1.96 a share with big upside volume. Since that move, shares of HNSN have pulled back and started to consolidation between $1.77 and $1.60 a share. This stock is now starting to bounce higher and move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on HNSN, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending some key near-term support levels at $1.60 to its 50-day at $1.51, and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.77 to $1.96 a share high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 530,653 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then HNSN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.15 to $2.23 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give HNSN a chance to tag $2.50 to $2.75 a share.

McDermott International

One final stock with some decent insider buying is McDermott International (MDR), an engineering, procurement, construction and installation company engaged on designing and executing complex offshore oil and gas projects. Insiders are buying this stock into big time weakness, since shares are off by 33.3% so far in 2013.

McDermott International has a market cap of $1.74 billion and an enterprise value of $1.35 billion. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings of 13.56. Its estimated growth rate for this year is -140.7%, and for next year it's pegged at 254.3%. This is a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $427.71 million and its total debt is $95.64 million.

The CEO just bought 74,180 shares, or about $499,000 worth of stock, at $6.74 per share.

From a technical perspective, MDR is currently trending well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock recently gapped down sharply from $9 to $6.68 with heavy downside volume. Following that move, shares of MDR have started to rebound sharply and trend higher, with the stock making higher lows and higher highs. This move is quickly pushing shares of MDR within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on MDR, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some key near-term support at $7.19 or $6.68 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance at $7.74 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 4.48 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then MDR will set up to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone that started near $9 a share.

To see more stocks with notable insider buying, check out the Stocks With Big Insider Buying portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.